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It won’t necessarily be Chuck Pagano’s fault."Being who you thought we were since 2005!Log In or Sign UpLog InSign UpFanpostsFanshotsSectionsBearsOddsAboutMastheadCommunity GuidelinesStubHubMoreAll 322 blogs on Horizontal - WhiteFanposts Fanshots Sections Latest NewsThe Bears DenNotesXs and OsSuperfansFrom The Desk Of...The Bears Defense Will Probably Regress in 2019New ,52commentsIt won’t necessarily be Chuck Pagano’s fault.CSTShareTweetShareShareThe Bears Defense Will Probably Regress in 2019Brian Spurlock-USA TODAY SportsThe success of the 2018 Chicago Bears was driven by a defense that was at the top of the NFL. Exactly where they ranked depends on which metric you prefer, but Football Outsiders ranked them first overall, first against the pass, and second against the rush. That seems about right. In a perfect world, the Bears would ride the best defense in the NFL into the history books, remaining at the top of the NFC North for years. This would allow Matt Nagy the chance to develop Mitchell Trubisky and the offense, and all would be well.It’s probably not going to happen. The defense is likely to see a dip in performance, and that’s even assuming that they don’t lose any important players like Adrian Amos or Bryce Callahan. When that happens, some fans are likely to blame the loss of Vic Fangio and the introduction of Chuck Pagano. The thing is, it won’t be Pagano’s fault, necessarily, either.Defenses are really inconsistent on a year-to-year basis. This is a major reason it makes more sense for a team to invest in offense, and it’s also one of the reasons why the Bears are fortunate in having an offensive coach at the center of their organization.Turnovers Aren’t SustainableFootball Outsiders tells us that predicting turnovers is a difficult thing. In fact, it’s really unlikely for a team to sustain turnovers on a year-to-year basis. In 2004,it was noted that teams rarely sustain a presence at the top of the turnover board from one season to the next, and that exact same trend was found to be true again in 2014. For 2018, Chicago led the league with 36 takeaways. That is really, really good. It also does very little to suggest how the next season is going to go.To pick one finding out of many Nick Kwiatkoski Color Rush Jersey , 538 reports that from 2009-2018, a team’s interception rate in the prior season had only a 2.4% share of predicting the next season’s success. What Kyle Fuller did in 2018 was great, but there is little reason to think the Bears are going to stay at the top of the leaderboard in this regard.What this means is that Chicago’s defense--which had five more takeaways than the next-closest competitor in 2018--is unlikely to stay that dominant. This won’t be Pagano’s fault, even if fans look to find a way to blame him.Chicago Over-performed in SacksUnlike interceptions, quarterback hits do tend to be consistent on a year-to-year basis. Sacks, however, do not (and sacks only own a 3.6% share of predicting the next season’s success rate). Chicago was 8th in quarterback hits last season, with 95; that should have resulted in an expected sack rate of around 41 or 42 sacks. Instead, the Bears enjoyed 49 sacks. In other words, while quarterback hits are consistent, sacks are not. We should expect to see the same defense get slightly fewer sacks next season even if they do maintain the same rate of hitting the quarterback. That means that Chicago will likely field a top-half or even top-third defense. It does not suggest that they will be one of the very top teams in sacks, like they were in 2018.Defense as a Whole is VolatileIn general, defense is less reliable than offense. That’s one reason why offensive DVOA does roughly twice as good of a job of predicting the next season’s success as defensive DVOA. The top three defenses in 2016 were Denver, New York (Giants), and Arizona. In 2017, those same units ranked 10th, 18th, and 4th. In 2018 Prince Amukamara Jersey , there were--in the same order--5th, 24th, and 17th. A number of factors impact defense, including rules that are slanted to favor offenses and the ability of offenses to isolate aspects of a defense that they choose to focus on. In simple terms, an offense can almost always choose who gets to be in on a play, even if that choice is filtered through the opportunities provided by a defense. On the other hand, a defense cannot be guaranteed that its best players will even have a chance to make a play on the ball. Ultimately, what this means is that when the defense of the 2019 Chicago Bears take the field, they will likely be a capable unit. They will probably be able to take over games and win a few contests almost on their own. However, it is really unlikely they will dominate games as they did in 2018, and their struggles will have a number of explanations unconnected to either Vic Fangio’s departure or Chuck Pagano’s arrival as his replacement. CHICAGO (AP) — From the moment they identified him as the quarterback to lift their struggling franchise, the Chicago Bears envisioned big games from Mitchell Trubisky.As breakthroughs go, this was a huge one.Trubisky threw a career-high six touchdown passes — one shy of the NFL record — and the NFC North-leading Bears pounded the Tampa Bay Buccaneers 48-10 on Sunday.The Bears (3-1) won their third straight with Trubisky delivering the sort of performance general manager Ryan Pace envisioned when he traded up a spot to draft the prized quarterback with the No. 2 overall pick last year.He finished one TD pass short of the franchise mark set by Sid Luckman against the New York Giants in 1943. Luckman is tied with seven others in NFL history to throw seven TD passes in a game. The Bears also racked up 483 yards in this one, nearly matching their record of 488 in that same game, on the way to their highest point total since 51-20 victory over Tennessee in 2012.“It’s very humbling because you know the history of the Bears and how many great players have come through this organization,” Trubisky said. “For me, you’re just trying to create your own legacy and try to make a path.”The defense did its part, harassing Ryan Fitzpatrick before Jameis Winston took over to start the second half. And the Bears (3-1) matched their longest win streak since a 3-0 start in 2013.Trubisky had never thrown for more than two touchdowns in a game. But he tossed five in the first half alone as Chicago grabbed a 38-3 lead. The only other player with more in a single half since 1991 was Green Bay’s Aaron Rodgers with six in the first two quarters against the Bears in a romp at Lambeau Field in November 2014.Trubisky had no trouble finding wide-open receivers against a struggling secondary , completing 19 of 26 passes for 354 yards.“Hopefully, this is a day where we look back down the road here,” Bears coach Matt Nagy said, “and say, ‘Remember that day where he had that great game?’ And it helped catapult him into being a great quarterback.”Khalil Mack had a strip-sack in the first half against Fitzpatrick. That made him the first player with a sack and forced fumble in four straight games since Robert Mathis for Indianapolis in 2005. He also appeared to tip the ball as Winston released a pass that Danny Trevathan picked off on the first drive of the second half.OVERMATCHEDComing off a tight loss to Pittsburgh on Monday night, the Buccaneers (2-2) were simply overwhelmed in this one.“We should fire every person that was on that field today, starting with me. That was horrific,” coach Dirk Koetter said.Koetter said Winston “probably” did enough to regain the starting job, but wouldn’t quite commit to that.Tampa Bay decided to stick with Fitzpatrick as the starting quarterback even though Winston was back from a three-game suspension for violating the NFL’s personal conduct policy.But after becoming the first player in NFL history to top 400 yards passing in three consecutive games, Fitzpatrick was 9 of 18 for 126 yards and got sacked twice. Winston was 16 for 20 with 145 yards, one touchdown and two interceptions.CATCHING ONChicago’s Tarik Cohen had a career-high 121 yards receiving and a touchdown. Taylor Gabriel had a personal-best 104 yards receiving to go with two TD catches.Trey Burton caught a 39-yard touchdown on the game’s opening drive and finished with 86 yards.Allen Robinson caught a 14-yarder late in the first quarter — his first TD since signing with Chicago in the offseason.HICKS EJECTEDBears defensive tackle Akiem Hicks was ejected for pushing an official late in the first half.The incident occurred after Eddie Jackson intercepted a pass by Fitzpatrick. Hicks was involved in a scuffle away from the play with a Buccaneers player. Down judge Mike Carr had separated them when Hicks charged back and pushed the official, referee Jerome Boger told a pool reporter.“It was just a deliberate act, when he knew the official was there in-between,” Boger said.Hicks remained on the sideline for a few plays before leaving the field and threw his shoulder pads and jersey into the stands.NATIONAL ANTHEMThere were no obvious protests by either team.INJURIESBuccaneers: TE O.J. Howard left in the first half because of a knee injury. … CB Carlton Davis III aggravated a groin injury.Bears: LB Sam Acho left in the first half with a pectoral injury.UP NEXTBuccaneers: Have bye week. At Atlanta on Oct. 14.Bears: Have bye week. At Miami on Oct. 14.
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